92%

Survival Rates for Thyroid Cancer

Error Message

sex

male

female

age

55 years old

80 or older 18

stage

Localized (1)

Regional (2/3)

Metastatic (4)

grade

well

moderately

poorly

when diagnosed

within past month

within past month 2 years ago or longer

92% of 40-year-old women diagnosed with metastatic thyroid cancer (stage 4, medullary) live at least 5 years.

Out of 100 people with the above diagnosis:

10 people lived for longer than

Best case scenario

50 people lived between and

Typical scenario

10 people lived for less than

Worst case scenario

Survival rates showing how many out of 100 people lived at least 1, 2, 5, and 10 years
98 people	lived at least	1 year
97 people	lived at least	2 years
92 people	lived at least	5 years
82 people	lived at least	10 years

Analysis conducted by

Dr. Emily Marlow
Epidemiologist, California Polytechnic University San Luis Obispo

Medically reviewed by

Dr. James Murphy
Oncologist, UC San Diego

Dr. Aaron Simon
Oncologist, UC Irvine

Data from the U.S. National Cancer Institute

Data and statistical info

All default displayed survival rates are calculated using an all-cause methodology that includes deaths from any cause of mortality (including but not limited to: cancer, cardiovascular disease, accidents, etc.).

The toggle button on the screen allows the user to switch to use cause-specific cancer survival rates, which include only the cancer type as the cause of death in the survival calculation of survival (per S.E.E.R. definitions).

Overall survival is typically lower than cause-specific survival because it includes deaths from all causes, while cause-specific survival includes only cancer-related deaths. In younger or advanced-stage patient groups where nearly all deaths are cancer-related and the two estimates are extremely close, model-based survival estimates can occasionally produce small reversals between the displayed percentages. These minor differences reflect statistical estimation noise/artifact and do not indicate an issue with the underlying survival data.

Statistical models are Cox proportional-hazards models using data from the U.S. National Cancer Institute S.E.E.R. database from 2004-2021.

Models use Combined Summary Stage, Grade, and Histologic Type ICD-O-3.

Age is a binned variable with the following groups: 18-34, 35-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80-90.

Survival scenarios are based on the survival time distribution from the Cox proportional-hazards models, using the estimated survival rate at 3 years to determine whether to display survival rates at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years, or ranges for best, typical, and worst case scenarios.

Models developed by Emily Marlow, Ph.D., Epidemiologist, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.

Reviewed by James Murphy, M.D., Radiation Oncologist, UCSD; Andrew Bruggeman, M.D., Radiation Oncologist, Sharp Healthcare; Aaron Simon M.D. Ph.D., Radiation Medicine, UC Irvine; Dr. Andrew Martin, Biostatistician, University of Sydney.

Understanding survival rates and scenarios

CancerSurvivalRates.com uses data from the U.S. National Cancer Institute's SEER database (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results). SEER follows the outcomes of people diagnosed with cancer across the United States, making it one of the most trusted sources of cancer survival statistics. Statistical models use SEER data covering diagnoses from 2004–2021. These numbers reflect general statistics and do not predict any individual's outcome.

We calculate survival rates and scenarios using all-cause survival. That means the percentage of people still alive after being diagnosed with cancer for a certain period of time. All-cause survival reflects overall outcomes, which includes whether people have died due to cancer, natural causes, or for other reasons unrelated to cancer.

All-cause survival is what most doctors and researchers use when talking about how long people with cancer live.

3 questions to ask your doctor

tap each to read

What is your estimate of my survival?

Ask your doctor about their thoughts on your 1, 2, 5 and 10 year survival rates to get a personalized estimate. The numbers on this site are survival rates based upon cases of other people with this type of cancer. Use these numbers to ask your doctor what would make your outlook the same or different.

Tip: Use the drop-down at the top of the page to change the survival length from 5 year to 1, 2 or 10 year.

Reviewed by Aaron Simon M.D. Ph.D, Radiation Medicine, UC San Diego

What is my stage and grade?

What is Stage and why do I need to know it?

Cancer Stage is a number, typically from 1 to 4, measuring the size of the cancer tumor and if the cancer has spread. Stage 1 means the cancer hasn’t spread to other parts of the body, while stage 4 means that it has. Stages 2 and 3 are somewhere in between. Survival rates are typically lower for higher stages.

What is Grade and why do I need to know it?

Some cancers also have a grade. The grade indicates how fast the cancer is growing. Well differentiated means the cancer cells are more like normal cells and growing slower. Poorly differentiated means the cancer cells don’t look like normal cells and growing faster. Moderately differentiated grade means the cells are somewhere in between well and poorly differentiated.

What is Histology and why do I need to know it?

Histology type describes the tissue in the cancer. Cancer is treated differently depending upon histology type for many cancers. Outcomes and survival rates can be different by histology type so it can be useful to know your histology. Some histologies are less common and therefore may not be included in our database. Talk with your doctor about how your histology affects outcomes and survival rates.

Bottom line, confirming stage and grade of cancer with your doctor is important for understanding prognosis (outlook) and discussing treatment options.

Reviewed by Andrew Bruggeman, M.D. Radiation Oncologist, UC San Diego

What can I do to be more comfortable?

Ask about things that will make you more comfortable: Treating your pain or side effects, or anything else that will improve your comfort. Doctors and nurses can't help if you don't ask.

Reviewed by Shoshana Ungerleider, M.D. California Pacific Medical Center

Questions to think about

tap each to read

Do I want my wishes for end of life known in writing? (Advance Directive)

We recommend the following website for more information: Advance Care Planning

Reviewed by Shoshana Ungerleider, M.D. California Pacific Medical Center

What is important to me? What are my priorities?

These are personal questions best discussed with your family, friends, and care providers. But it's your life, so thinking about how you want to live it is something we believe we all have the right to do. Even if survival rates are good, stopping to think about what we want to do, who we want to be, and how we want to live is a perfectly good thing to do, no matter the diagnosis.

Survival Rates for Thyroid Cancer

It depends

92% of 40-year-old women diagnosed with metastatic thyroid cancer (stage 4, medullary) live at least 5 years.

Data and statistical info

Understanding survival rates and scenarios

3 questions to ask your doctor

tap each to read

Questions to think about

tap each to read